外商直接投资与经济增长关系研究

选取1983～2010年的数据,运用协整检验和误差修正模型研究外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系,研究表明:(1)1983～2010年两者之间没有明确的长期均衡关系,原因在于我国引进外资政策和外商直接投资规模的阶段性特征明显。(2)根据两个时间序列的图形特征及邹氏参数稳定性断点检验将整个样本期以1994年为界分为两个子样本,两个子样本期内两者之间存在长期协整关系,短期内当外商直接投资规模偏离经济增长时,经济系统将分别以-0.2908和-0.0263的力度将其拉回均衡状态。(3)格兰杰因果检验表明,FDI促进了经济增长,但经济增长对吸引更多外资的作用不显著。提出了改善外商投资环境、加强外资的产业与区域导向和拓宽引进外资的渠道等政策建议。

The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth

In this paper,we selected annual data from 1983～2010 to study the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth using Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model,the research showed that there was no clear long-term equilibrium between 1983-2010 years between foreign direct investment and economic growth,probably because of the obvious characteristics of introduction of foreign capital policy and foreign direct investment in our country.According to the graphics features of two time series,chow parameters stability test divided the whole sample period breakpoints into two son samples with 1994 as a border,and there were both cointegrating relationships in two sons samples,in the short term when foreign direct investment scale deviated from the economic growth,economic system will be back to balance state separately with 0.2908 and 0.0263.Granger causality test showed that FDI promoted the economy,but the role of economic growth to attract more foreign investment is not significant.Our policy advice were improving foreign investment environment,strengthening the foreign investment industry and regional orientation,and broadening the channels of introducing the foreign capital.