电力消费与经济增长关系的实证研究——以河北省为例

电力以其清洁高效的特质在河北省经济社会发展中发挥着越来越重要的作用.以1995-2010年间河北省电力消费总量和实际地区生产总值两组数据为基础,运用协整理论、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验等统计计量方法,对1995年以来河北省电力消耗与经济增长之间的关系进行探讨,实证研究表明,尽管河北省电力消费与经济增长的关系在短期内具有一定波动性,但是从长期来看,两者之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,并且互为因果关系.

Research on Hebei's Electric Power Consumption and Economic Growth——A Case in Hebei Province

Electric power,with its clean and efficient characteristics,is playing an increasingly important role in economic and social development of Hebei Province.This paper takes two sets of data in electric power consumption and the real GDP from 1995 to 2010 as the foundation and discusses the relationship between the electric power consumption and economic growth,using co-integration theory,error correction model and Granger causality test and other statistical methods.The empirical research shows that,although it has some volatility between each other in the short term,but there exists a stable equilibrium relationship and causal relationship in the long term.