内陆开放地区对外贸易、资本投资与就业分析——以重庆市为例

根据重庆市1987-2009年的统计数据,利用协整理论和向量误差修正模型(VECM),对重庆市对外贸易、资本投资与就业的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:从长期来看,重庆市进出口与就业之间存在唯一的协整关系；出口对就业具有拉动作用,而进口对就业有阻碍作用,并且出口对就业的促进作用小于进口对就业的抑制作用；而资本投入在一定程度上对劳动力产生了替代性.重庆市应通过协调产业发展、打造对外贸易新平台、均衡资本在区域、行业间的投入促进就业.

Foreign Trade, Capital Investment and Employment in Inland Open Areas

According to Chongqing’s statistics from 1987 to 2009,the author analyzes the relationship between foreign trade,capital investment and employment of Chongqing city by using co integration theory and vector error correction model(VECM),the empirical results show that: in the long run,there is a unique co integration relationship between imports,exports and employment of Chongqing city.It’s a stimulating effect of exports on employment,while imports obstacle the employment,further,the export’s promotion is less than the inhibitory effect of imports on employment.In the short term,the positive effect of exports on employment is less than the negative effect of imports.To some extent,the increase of capital investment is substitute for the labor.Chongqing city should achieve the goals by coordinating the development of industries,create new foreign trade platform,and balance the capital investment in the region and industry.