耕地占用税与耕地数量变化的动态模拟及政策启示——浙江省的实证研究

研究目的：对耕地占用税与耕地数量变化进行动态模拟。研究方法：BP神经网络，演绎法。研究结果：改变耕地占用税对耕地数量变化存在互反作用，耕地数量变化与耕地占用税预算数增减同向，与耕地占用税决算数增减逆向；耕地数量变化幅度与耕地占用税预算数及决算数变化幅度正相关。研究结论：依靠耕地占用税制度安排抑制耕地数量减少需要区分政府的目的与行为，设置合理的耕地占用税预算数与决算数。

Dynamic Simulation and Policy Implications of the Relationship between Cultivated Land Use Tax and Cultivated Land Quantity Change: An Empirical Study on Zhejiang Province

The purpose of this paper is to dynamically simulate the cultivated land use tax and the quantity change of cultivated land. Methods employed include BP neural network and deduction. The results show that there exist inverse impacts between cultivated land use tax change and cultivated land quantity change. The change of cultivated land use quantity shares the same direction with fluctuation of the budget of cultivated land use tax and is variating in the reverse direction of the variation of actual final account of cultivated land use tax. The variation range of cultivated land quantity is positively correlated with the variation range of budget and actual final account of cultivated land use tax. It is concluded that in order to prevent the decreasing of cultivated land quantity through the restrainings from policy arrangement of cultivated land use tax, the local government’s motives and actions should be clearly distinguished, the budget and actual final account of cultivated land use tax should be set up scientifically.