| Abstract: | This paper has been prepared in an attempt to interpret some of the price-supply complexities in the Pork, Beef and Bacon markets. Previous writers have tackled the subject working out price flexibilities on a three monthly, half-yearly or annual basis. It appeared that the price-supply relationships could, with advantage, be examined on a monthly basis-the statistical significance of the results would not be as high as with previous work, but it was felt that the contribution would be worthwhile so long as the conclusions were supported by circumstantial evidence. The pork market has been examined in detail and evidence found suggesting that during the period 1955 to 1965 there have been two shifts in the demand curve, both appearing to result from a coincidence of a period of high pig numbers with one of low beef supply. The beef analysis did not reveal anything of note in the way of shifts in the demand curve, but there was a very marked seasonal pattern of prices in the period 1955 to 1960 with some of the months of high prices having a temptingly low price flexibility suggesting scope for profitable expansion of supplies during these months. The main months when this occurred were after the peak period of fattening stock from yards and before grass fed stock come on the market. Supplies have increased rapidly in this period and moved away from the last three months of the year when price flexibility was large and prices relatively low. The bacon analysis has been done at the wholesale level rather than at the farm gate. Price flexibilities are high and in practically every month of the year expansion in supply results in a decrease in total value of sales. Unless a change in demand can be brought about there would appear to be little scope in expanding total supplies of bacon. The best course for the home producer would appear to be to attempt to expand the U.K. share of the market. |
