基于六普数据的中国城镇化空间格局分异模拟

本文以"六普"分县人口数为基础,通过预景的研究方法,模拟不同情景下,我国城镇化未来格局分异。认为,我国人口城镇化将在2032年左右接近尾声,城镇化率约为70%,届时全国城镇总人口共约10.3亿。人口城镇化的区域格局上,据模拟,东部地区城镇化增速仍将保持快速增长。2032年左右,东部、中部、西部地区三个区域城镇化水平分别为50.2%、28.7%、21.0%,与2010年相比,城镇人口总数分别增长59.0%、54.7%、40.6%,城镇化水平分别增加+1.7%、+0.2%、-1.9%。研究结论可为未来我国城镇化空间布局提供参考。

China urbanization space differentiation simulation based on Six general data

China is facing an unprecedented urbanization process and severe sustainability challenges.This paper uses the current economic and land use patterns as well as the county population data of the sixth nationwide population census, to establish simulation of resistance of urban population growth and distribution in future China. According to the simulations, the urban population will continue gathering in the eastern region from the western and central regions, and will further agglomerate in several metropolitan areas. This study is expected to provide a scientific reference for the future spatial pattern optimization of urban population and land use planning at the national scale.