Future cities in a warming world |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Design, Monash University – Caulfield Campus, 900 Dandenong Rd, Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia;2. Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Monash University – Clayton Campus, P.O. Box 31, Victoria 3800, Australia;1. Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-7315, USA;2. Department of Geography and Resource Development, University of Ghana, PO Box LG59, Legon, Accra, Ghana;1. Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal;2. Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal;3. Faculty of Nutrition and Food Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal;4. Institute of Mechanical Engineering and Industrial Management, Porto 4200-465, Portugal;1. Department of Physics, University of Avignon, Avignon 84000, France;2. Mediterranean Environment and Agro-Hydro System Modelisation Laboratory, French National Institute for Agricultural Research, Avignon 84914, France;1. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Van der Boechorststraat 1, 1081BT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, The Netherlands;3. Fontys University of Applied Sciences, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | More than half the global population are already urban, and the UN and other organisations expect this share to rise in future. However, some researchers argue that the future of cities is far from assured. Cities are not only responsible for 70% or more of the world's CO2 emissions, but because of their dense concentration of physical assets and populations, are also more vulnerable than other areas to climate change. This paper attempts to resolve this controversy by first looking at how cities would fare in a world with average global surface temperatures 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. It then looks at possible responses, either by mitigation or adaptation, to the threat such increases would entail. Regardless of the mix of adaptation and mitigation cities adopt in response to climate change, the paper argues that peak urbanism will occur over the next few decades. This fall in the urban share of global population will be driven by the rise in biophysical hazards in cities if the response is mainly adaptation, and by the declining attraction of cities (and possibly the rising attraction of rural areas) if serious mitigation is implemented. |
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| Keywords: | Climate adaptation Climate mitigation Future cities Peak urbanism Urban migration |
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