| 我国交通运输设备制造业发展的动态计量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 金成晓,徐卓顺,王均恒.我国交通运输设备制造业发展的动态计量分析[J].产业经济研究,2007(5):45-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金成晓 徐卓顺 王均恒 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学,数量经济研究中心,吉林,130012 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文分析并选择了影响我国交通运输设备制造业发展的供给和需求因素,并利用状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波理论建立并处理了交通运输设备制造业供给和需求函数的变参数模型,得出相对于固定资产,流动资产和劳动力投入能更大程度地提高销售收入,相对于货运周转量和客运周转量,城镇居民可支配收入和出口额有更大的拉动作用的结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通运输设备制造业 变参数模型 状态空间模型 卡尔曼滤波 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-9301（2007）05-0045-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-06-28 |
A Dynamic Econometric Analysis of China Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Development |
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| JIN Chengxiao,XU Zhuoshun,WANG Junheng.A Dynamic Econometric Analysis of China Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Development[J].Industrial Economics Research,2007(5):45-52. |
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| Authors: | JIN Chengxiao XU Zhuoshun WANG Junheng |
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| Institution: | Quantitative Economics Research Center Jilin University, Jilin 130012, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzed the supply and demand factors impacting China transportation equipment manufacturing development, and then established and managed the time-varying parameter model of the transportation equipment manufacturing supply and demand function by adopting the state space model and Kalman filter theory. The results showed that current assets and labor input can greater advance sales revenue than capital assets, the disposable income of urban residents and exports can greater advance sales revenue than the freight turnover and passenger turnover. |
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| Keywords: | transportation equipment manufacturing time-varying parameter model state space model Kalman filter |
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