国内外金融危机预警模型述评

随着全球化进程的加快，金融市场逐渐成为各国经济运行的核心。金融体系本身的特殊性，其既给各国经济发展带来了机遇的同时也伴随了大量的风险。世界范围内接连不断的金融危机暴露出金融风险的严重紧迫性和金融危机的破坏性，尤其在发展中国家和新兴市场国家这一问题更加突出。因此，构建有效的金融危机预警体系，筛选恰当的预警指标，能够相对准确的预报警情，确定危机来源，判断危机大小就显得迫切重要。在此对国内外流行的金融危机预警方法的基本原理、模型的发展和缺陷进行梳理和对比分析，为我国金融危机预警研究工作提供参考。

Review of Domestic and International Financial Crisis Warning Models

With the accelerating process of globalization, the financial market has become the core of national economy The particularity of the financial system not only has brought opportunities to countries, but also a lot of risks Worldwide financial crisis exposed financial risks and the devastating financial crisis Especially in developing and emerging market countries, the problem is more prominent, Therefore, building an effective early warning system for financial crisis, that can screen appropriate early warning indicators, timely forecast financial crisis, determine the source of the crisis, is an urgent problem, This paper aims to sort out the basic principles, model development and defects of domestic and international early warning method for providing reference for future research work.