税务机关征收养老保险费对征缴率的影响研究

基于养老保险2002—2018年省级面板数据，运用系统GMM估计方法研究社保费征收模式对征缴率的影响。研究发现：社保全征的征缴率高于税务全征，但低于税务代征，后者无统计意义。进一步的机制和异质性检验结果表明：税务全征可能增加企业研发投入或减少雇佣人数，对实际征缴收入产生负面影响；对于系统老龄化程度低于30%,或征缴率高于60%,或参保率高于69.107%的样本，税务全征使征缴率下降10.8～16.2个百分点。可见，税务代征模式更有助于社保体系的可持续发展。

Research on the Impact of the Collection of Pension Insurance Premiums by Tax Authority on the Collection Rate

Based on the provincial panel data of pension insurance from 2002 to 2018, this paper uses the system GMM estimation method to study the impact of collection pattern of social insurance premium on the collection rate. The study found that when the social security agencies are fully responsible for the collection of social security premiums, the collection rate is higher than the tax authorities, but is lower than that of the tax authorities on behalf of social security agencies, the latter has no statistical significance. Further mechanism test and heterogeneity test show that the mode of FRCTA makes enterprises increase R&D investment or reduce the number of employees, which has a negative impact on the actual collection income of social security funds, and the samples whose systematic aging degree is less than 30%, or the collection rate is higher than 60%, or the pension insurance participation rate is higher than 69.107%, the mode of FRCTA will reduce the collection rate by 10.8~16.2 percentage points. In view of this, the mode of CTASS will help to improve the sustainability of social security system.