中美贸易不平衡中的东亚转移效应

本文构建了一个理论框架研究中美贸易不平衡中的东亚转移效应以及东亚转移效应在不同技术分类下的不同表现。在理论分析的基础上,选取中国对东亚的投资开放度和加权实际汇率两个指标来度量东亚转移效应,并进行回归分析。实证结果发现:东亚转移效应是中美贸易顺差扩大的重要因素;东亚转移效应显著存在于高技术和中技术产品上,低技术产品和初级产品则不存在显著的东亚转移效应;高技术产品上的东亚转移效应要明显大于中技术产品;人民币对美元升值有助于减少中、低技术产品顺差,但对高技术产品顺差几乎没有影响。为有效缓解中美贸易不平衡,中国须审慎对待人民币升值,稳步、有序地推进汇率制度改革,鼓励企业海外投资,加快产业结构升级,并坚持走出口多元化道路。

East-Asian Transferring Effect in Sino-US Trade Imbalance

The paper builds a theoretical framework to study the East-Asian transferring factor of the Sino-US trade imbalance and its different behaviors on different technology category.We select openness of investment and weighted real exchange rate as measurement variables for East-Asian transferring factor.Empirical analysis reaches several conclusions.East-Asian transferring effect is the most important factor for Sino-US trade imbalance and it significantly exists on the high and middle tech category,while there is no evidence of such effect on the primary product and low tech category.Furthermore,such effect on high tech is bigger than that on middle tech.In addition,we also find the depreciation of china’s real exchange rate to the US dollar has no effect on trade surplus of high tech product.Finally,we propose some advice for the adjustment of Sino-US trade imbalance.In order to alleviate imbalance of Sino-US trade,China should be cautious for reform of exchange system,encourage enterprises to invest overseas,upgrade industrial structure and expand export markets.