Transient Crowding and Crime:

A bstract . The effects on crime rates of the intrusion of large numbers of strangers into an area are investigated. The sensitivity of six different crime types ( murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary , and larceny ) to density of strangers is estimated using a standard model of criminal behavior. The variables which reflect this density are measures of tourists, college students, shoppers from other areas, opportunities to consume alcohol , and the presence of interstate highway exits. The results suggest that an increase in the number of strangers into an area has a positive effect on the crimes of burglary, larceny, and robbery, but very little effect on assault, murder and rape. A significant finding is that "wet" counties have a higher incidence of each crime type than do "dry" counties. From a policy standpoint, officials who support economic growth in urban areas should keep in mind that an increase in the opportunity for illegal activity accompanies such growth and plan accordingly.