出口贸易对我国城镇贫困的影响——基于1985—2005年中国数据的协整分析和格兰杰因果检验

贸易自由化能够通过很多渠道影响发展中国家贫困人口的生活状况,但理论分析和经验验证都表明其效果是不明确的。在总结相关文献的基础上,利用1985—2005年的数据,对我国出口贸易和城镇贫困之间的关系进行协整分析和格兰杰因果检验。结果表明,出口贸易降低了我国三种城镇贫困人口的收入份额,但缩小了他们内部的收入差距。对于这一不同于传统贸易理论的事实,可以从城乡劳动力流动等角度进行解释。

Impact of Exports on Chinese Urban Poverty: Cointegration Analysis and Granger Test Based on Chinese Data from 1985 to 2005

Trade liberalization can influence the poverty of developing countries through many channels, but its effects are ambiguous both in theoretical analysis and in empirical test. This paper, based on literature review, attempts to make a cointegration analysis and Granger test on the relationship between Chinese urban poverty and export trade with the data from 1958 to 2005. We find that export trade worsens three types of incomes of urban poverty and reduce their differences in incomes. This contradicts traditional trade theory and can be explained from the point of point of labor migration from the country to cities.