A theory of risk, smuggling and welfare

This paper argues that the existing models of smuggling do not provide a proper treatment of risk. The paper develops a smuggling model which is an application of James Tobin's celebrated risk analysis to the smuggling situation. The paper shows that a large number of existing key smuggling-related results are fundamentally modified. The paper then develops special cases using this properly specified risk model. These special cases help identify the assumptions one needs to obtain results in the existing smuggling literature. It is shown that the required assumptions for these results to hold are generally quite unrealistic.