| Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area： A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis |
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| 摘 要： | The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.
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| 关 键 词： | 自由贸易区 定量分析 中国 东盟 可计算一般均衡模型 展望 经济危机 经济一体化 |
Prospects for ASEAN–China Free Trade Area: A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis |
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| Authors: | Donghyun Park Innwon Park Gemma Esther BEstrada |
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| Institution: | Senior Economist, Economic and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, Manila, the Philippines. Email:;;Professor, Division of International Studies, Korea University, Seoul, Korea. Email:;;Economic Officer, Economic and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, Manila, the Philippines. Email: . |
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| Abstract: | The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), which is set to come into effect around 2010. ACFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors: ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether ACFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding ACFTA's prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China. |
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| Keywords: | ASEAN China computable general equilibrium model economic integration free trade area |
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