中国—新西兰自由贸易区的构建对双方经济影响的计量研究

采用GTAP模型,就中新自由贸易区的建立将对双方在贸易规模、贸易结构、生产格局、GDP和福利水平等方面产生的经济影响进行了一般均衡模拟研究。研究结果表明,中国农产品、奶产品、畜牧业、动物肉及其制品等会受到较大冲击;中国各产业的产出水平不会受太大影响,而新西兰各产业的产出变化相对明显;新西兰所受经济影响要大于中国所受经济影响;中国的GDP和福利水平会受到负面影响,而新西兰的GDP和福利会得到较大改善。

Quantitive Analysis on the Impact of China-New Zealand FTA on Both Sides' Economies

Applying GTAP model, this paper makes a computable general equilibrium analysis on the impact of China-New Zealand FTA's construction on both sides' economies from aspects of trade scale, trade structure, output pattern, GDP and the social welfare. The result indicates that, China's farm product, dairy product, stock raising and meat product suffer great negative impact; each industry's output of China suffers little impact, while New Zealand's output levels change much correspondingly; the economic impact on New Zealand are greater than that on China; China's GDP and social welfare suffer certain negative impact while New Zealand's GDP and national welfare improve significantly.