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Risk-sharing and crises. Global games of regime change with endogenous wealth
Authors:Rodolfo G. Campos
Affiliation:Department of Economics, IESE Business School, Camino del Cerro del Águila 3, 28023 Madrid, Spain
Abstract:I add heterogeneous agents and risk-sharing opportunities to a global game of regime change. The novel insight is that when there is a risk-sharing motive, fundamentals drive not only individual behavior, but also select which individuals are more relevant for the likelihood of a crisis because of endogenous shifts in wealth. If attacking is relatively safe, attack behavior in the global game and trade in state-contingent assets feed back into each other. This feedback implies that multiple equilibria may exist even if signal noise becomes arbitrarily small. In addition, heterogeneity in risk-aversion within the population amplifies the influence of the state of the economy on the probability of a crisis.
Keywords:D8   G2   E3
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