Risk-sharing and crises. Global games of regime change with endogenous wealth |
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Authors: | Rodolfo G. Campos |
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Affiliation: | Department of Economics, IESE Business School, Camino del Cerro del Águila 3, 28023 Madrid, Spain |
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Abstract: | I add heterogeneous agents and risk-sharing opportunities to a global game of regime change. The novel insight is that when there is a risk-sharing motive, fundamentals drive not only individual behavior, but also select which individuals are more relevant for the likelihood of a crisis because of endogenous shifts in wealth. If attacking is relatively safe, attack behavior in the global game and trade in state-contingent assets feed back into each other. This feedback implies that multiple equilibria may exist even if signal noise becomes arbitrarily small. In addition, heterogeneity in risk-aversion within the population amplifies the influence of the state of the economy on the probability of a crisis. |
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Keywords: | D8 G2 E3 |
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