| Abstract: | Summary This is an analysis of the demand for public transport—provided by tramway and bus services—in Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam.
It is principally concerned with the estimation of price elasticities and with an assessment of the future growth of demand.
The analysis is based on monthly figures of the numbers of tickets of six different kinds sold at known tariffs in the three
cities from 1948 to 1964. The method of analysis is least-squares regression of demand on real price and time; dummy variables
are used to eliminate the seasonal variation of demand and to account for changes in the tariff structure as in the case of
the introduction of a new type of ticket with special facilities. The data for the three cities are analysed separately throughout.
To begin with, demand for each particular type of ticket was analysed separately. The resulting estimates show no coherent
pattern in each of the cities. Matters improve, however, when demand is grouped together—according to the type of ticket—in
two categories only,viz., “travel to and from work” and “all other transport”. Demand is inelastic with respect to price for both categories, but
the price elasticities differ: they are about 0.80 for the first group, and only 0.40 for the second. There is also a marked
difference in the trend coefficients. Demand for travel to and from work is increasing annually, while other transport is
declining at a rate of about 7%. These results apply uniformly for each of the three cities considered.
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