Modeling the European cycle with factor structure and regime switching

This paper compares the stylized facts of the European growth cycle stemming from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Monetary Union with an unobserved common factor derived from a dynamic factor model with regime switching. The aim of this paper is to provide empirical evidence about the most adequate indicator for short-term monitoring of the cyclical state of the European economy. Previous versions of this article have been presented at the 55th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Vienna, Austria, March 12–16, 2003) and at the VI Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Granada, Spain, June 5–7, 2003). The author would like to thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions.