中国不确定性信贷市场中的贷款供求微观机理分析——一个基于主观概率决策的信贷市场非均衡模型

文章立足于中国垄断竞争型的信贷市场,探讨了不确定性条件下贷款需求与贷款供给之间的微观作用机理。与新凯恩斯主义以信息不对称假设为基础的研究方法不同,文章以借贷双方根据对项目成功概率的主观判断进行贷款供求决策为基本假设,建立了一个有利于解释中国现实信贷市场运作机制的模型。结果显示,在不同的参数范围内,贷款供求之间可能出现完全配给、贷款供给限制、贷款需求限制和借贷宽松等四个区域。这种分析方法也有利于辨别货币供给的内外生性问题。

The Micro-mechanism of Loan Demand and Supply under China's Uncertain Credit Markets——A Disequilibrium Model of Credit Markets Based on the Subjective Probability Decision

Based on the China's credit market characterized by monopolistic competition,this paper explores the micro-mechanism of loan demand and supply under uncertainty.Different from the Neo-Keynesian theories which analyses the credit market under the assumption of asymmetric information,the author takes account of the impact of subjective probability judgment about the risks of the investment project of both the lenders and the borrowers on the determination of borrowing and lending,which will result in a better explanation of China's present credit market functioning system.Findings indicate that credit rationing,credit supply constraint,credit demand constraint and credit unconstraint may co-exist in the relationship between loan demand and supply within different parameter ranges and this analytical method can also be applied to help make judgment on the issue of endogenous or exogenous money supply.