中国城乡居民收入变化规律的定量分析

文章通过数学方法对1980～2007年间我国城镇居民人均可支配收入（Ic）、农村居民人均纯收入（If）及收入差距相互关系进行反演，发现它们服从（L-If）／Ic=0．24＊Ln（（L-If）／If）＋0．50的规律；If／Ic以0．50为中心，向〉0．50或〈0．50的方向演化与城镇失业减轻或加重有关。在当前经济模式下，2020～2021年我国的经济发展形式可能会出现一定程度的转变，收入差距在城镇居民人均可支配收入中所占的比例会降低，城乡收入的相对差距会由扩大向缩小转变。

Quantitative Analysis of the Urban and Rural Income Variation of China

The relationship of the income of urban (Ⅰc), rural (Ⅰr) areas and the gap between them had been quantitatively modeled, the result showing that they defer to (Ⅰc-Ⅰr)/Ⅰc= 0.24*Ln ((Ⅰc-Ⅰf)/Ⅰf)+ 0.50. The stable value of Ⅰf/Ⅰc under the economic development model of China is 0.50, and the variation of this ratio is related to the increasing or decreasing of the urban unemployment. Combine with the economical evolutionary trend of China between 1980 and 2007, the ratio of Ⅰf/Ⅰc might undergo a transformation between 2020-2021, the ratio of (Ⅰc-Ⅰf)/Ⅰc will drop down, and the relative income gap between urban and rural areas will change from increasing to decreasing.