Hans Singer's model of the severity of recessions |
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Authors: | Dixon Robert; Mahmood Muhammad |
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Institution: | * University of Melbourne and Victoria University of Technology, respectively |
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Abstract: | This paper draws attention to the innovative but neglected workof Hans Singer on the dynamics of unemployment. Influenced byKeynes, in the late 1930s Singer enquired into the relationshipbetween the inflow into unemploymentresulting primarilyfrom (involuntary) separations from employmentand thesize of the resultant fluctuations in the level of unemployment.His focus was on the determinants of the severitymeasuredin terms of how far unemployment risesof recessions.We illustrate his approach by looking at quarterly data forthe claimant count and its associated inflow and outflow inthe UK over the period 19892003, a period which includesone major recession episode. In addition to drawing attentionto Singer's ideas, the paper also extends his model by takinginto account recent empirical evidence on the behaviour of oneof the key variables in his model. We argue that, with thisextension, Singer's elegant and parsimonious model of unemploymentdynamics is a useful complement to Keynes's ideas on the fluctuationsin aggregate demand and output, and is of contemporary relevance. |
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Keywords: | Worker Flows Business cycle Unemployment |
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