| 美国大豆期货市场与现货市场价格传导关系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王可山,余建斌. 美国大豆期货市场与现货市场价格传导关系研究[J]. 中国流通经济, 2008, 22(9) |
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| 作者姓名： | 王可山 余建斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京物资学院经济学院,北京市,101149
2. 华南农业大学广东农村政策研究中心,广东,广州,510642 |
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| 摘 要： | 对美国大豆期货市场与现货市场价格传导关系的实证分析表明,美国大豆期货市场与现货市场相关性较强,期货市场与现货市场之间存在显著的长期均衡关系;期货市场和现货市场存在误差校正机制,当偏离两者的长期均衡关系时,重新回到原有均衡关系的调整速度较快;期货市场与现货市场相互引导,但现货市场的引导作用大于期货市场.文章提出,发现价格和套期保值是期货市场最基本的功能,这些功能的发挥与现货市场的发展密切相关.期货市场的产生与发展并不是对现货市场的替代,而且在完善的市场体系中,现货市场对期货市场具有较强的引导作用,现货市场发展的程度是影响期货市场功能发挥程度的关键因素.不断改善现货市场环境,加强现货市场建设,是促进期货市场快速发展的现实选择.
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| 关 键 词： | 美国 大豆 期货市场 现货市场 价格传导 |
An Analysis on Price Conductive Relationship in United States Soybean Spot-Futures Markets |
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| WANG Ke-shan,YU Jian-bin. An Analysis on Price Conductive Relationship in United States Soybean Spot-Futures Markets[J]. China Business and Market, 2008, 22(9) |
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| Authors: | WANG Ke-shan YU Jian-bin |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Ke-shan~1 , YU Jian-bin~2 (1.Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing101149,China,2.Center for Rural Development Policy of South China Agriculture University,Guangzhou,Guangdong510642,China) |
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| Abstract: | The authors study the price conductive relationship between United States soybean futures markets and spot markets.The greater correlation and distinct long-run equilibrium relationship indwell United States soybean spot-futures markets,and soybean markets have long co-integration relation and error correction mechanism.Once long-run equilibrium relationship be broken,the regress move quickly,and soybean spot markets has been a core factor to affect soybean futures markets in United States. |
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| Keywords: | United States soybean futures markets spot markets price conduct |
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