我国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易成本测定——基于改进的引力模型

本文运用加入多边贸易成本的改进的引力模型,测算了我国自20世纪80年代以来的双边贸易成本并分析了贸易成本的影响因素。结果表明我国贸易成本呈现下降趋势;贸易成本的下降具有时间非线性特点;地理距离、历史联系和收入水平是影响双边贸易成本的重要因素;地理距离越近,运输成本越低,历史联系越紧密,信息成本越低,收入水平越高,政策成本越低,反之,则越高。贸易成本对地理距离的弹性逐渐减少,说明了全球化的影响。我国贸易成本的下降,反映了贸易自由化的历史进程。

The Measurement of Trade Cost between China and Its Main Trade Partners-Based on the Revised Gravity Model

Based on the revised gravity model with multi-lateral trade cost,this paper measures China's bilateral trade cost and analyzes its determinants.The paper finds that:the trade cost has a non-linear decreasing trend;trade cost decreases much more quickly since 1999;geography distance,historical relationship,and income level are the main determinants of bilateral trade cost;the near distance means less transportation cost,the frequent historical trade relationships,the less information cost,the high income level,and less policy cost.The elasticity of trade cost to distance decreases,which interprets the influence of globalization.