东北三省工业化-信息化-城镇化-农业现代化-绿色化的“五化”测度及其协调发展研究

本文以东北三省34个地级城市为研究对象，构建其工业化-信息化-城镇化-农业现代化-绿色化的“五化”评价指标体系，结合熵值赋权与耦合协调度模型测度“五化”发展水平并划分其协调阶段类型，借助空间插值分析模拟其高低值格局，研究表明：（1）工业化、信息化、城镇化的发展排序为：辽宁>吉林>黑龙江，农业现代化与绿色化优势排序为：黑龙江>吉林>辽宁；三省农业现代化与绿色化发展超前于城镇化，工业化与信息化滞后显著；（2）“五化”综合空间分布呈现以“哈尔滨-长春”向外扩散的不规则圈层区域，以沈阳和大连为核心的高值区波及范围狭窄，黑龙江东部、辽源-通化、朝阳-阜新、本溪-丹东所在的吉林南端、辽东与辽西为低值地带；“五化”各自格局均呈现不均衡态势，工业化、信息化、城镇化、绿色化“四化”格局类似，农业现代化呈现由北向南递减的阶梯式格局；（3）沈阳、哈尔滨、长春、大连高级别的“五化”增长型城市与鹤岗、双鸭山、白山、辽源、七台河、本溪低水平“五化”衰退型城市差距较大，沈阳工业化、城镇化与绿色化、哈尔滨的信息化、齐齐哈尔的农业现代化位居首位；多数城市农业现代化超前于其它四化发展；（4）三省“五化”处于轻度失调衰退类型，“五化”协调发展排序为：辽宁>吉林>黑龙江，沈阳、长春、大连与哈尔滨为初级协调发展，吉林与大庆为濒临失调衰退，轻度失调衰退的城市比重最大。

The Coordination Development Research and its Spatial Pattern of Industrialization,Informatization, Urbanization,Agricultural Modernization and Greenization: as the Case of Northeast China

Based on the research object of 34 prefecture cities of the northeast three provinces, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of “the five-change “: industrialization - informatization - urbanization - agricultural modernization – greenization. With the methods of entropy weight and coupled coordination degree model, we measure the developmental level and divide the phase types of “the five-change” . After analyzed and simulated its spatial pattern with spatial interpolation, we drew the following conclusions: (1) The level of development of industrialization, informationization and urbanization is as follows: Liaoning> Jilin> Heilongjiang. The advantage of agricultural modernization and greenization in order to sort as follows: Heilongjiang> Jilin>Liaoning; (2) the comprehensive spatial distribution of “ the ?ve-change “ presents a irregular layer structure of the “Harbin - Changchun” outward diffusion. The high-value sector as the core of Shenyang and Dalian is narrowly affected. And the eastern part of Heilongjiang, Liaoyuan - Tonghua, Chaoyang - Fuxin, Benxi - Dandong which in the southern end of Jilin, Liaodong and western Liaoning are belong to the low-value zone. “The five-change “have imbalanced development among regions. Agricultural modernization shows a decreasing tendency from the northern to the southern areas, while the other “four-change” are similar in pattern; (3)the wide gap between high-level “five-change” developing cities such as Shenyang, Harbin, Changchun ,Dalian and low-level “five-change” degenerating cities such as Hegang, Shuangyashan, Baishan, Liaoyuan, Qitaihe and Benxi. It appears that the industrialization, urbanization and greenization of Shenyang , along with the informatization of Harbin, and the agricultural modernization Qiqihar are the lead. The agricultural modernization of the majority of cities are ahead of the development of the other four; (4) the three provinces are overall in the phase of mild imbalance and recession. The developmental sequence of “The ?ve-change “shows as: Liaoning> Jilin> Heilongjiang. Shenyang Changchun, Dalian and Harbin are now in the period of primary coordinated development, while Jilin and Daqing are facing imbalance and recession. And cities of the three provinces have the largest proportion among the cities suffering from mild imbalance and recession.