“一带一路”背景下中蒙俄经济走廊贸易潜力研究

在我国大力倡导“一带一路”，推动全球对外经贸合作深入发展的今天，建立“中蒙俄经济走廊”，充分发挥中俄蒙三国的经济互补性，挖掘三国之间的贸易潜力和合作空间，对三国的经济发展均有重要的战略意义。基于此研究背景，本文利用2002～2015年中俄对外贸易面板数据，通过引力模型分析了中蒙俄三国的贸易潜力。结果表明，近几年中俄两国之间的实际贸易额呈下降趋势，贸易增长潜力较大；中蒙两国之间的贸易虽呈现“贸易过度”的状态，但贸易额波动较大，且贸易总量较小。最后，从加强基础设施建设，增强政治、经济和文化交流以及完善边贸管理体制等3个方面对建立“中蒙俄经济走廊”提出了政策建议。

Analysis of "China,Mongolia and Russia Economic Corridor" 's Trade Potential

Based on the further development of foreign trade and economic cooperation of the world,the establishment of“China,Mongolia and Russia Economic Corridor”,giving full play to economic complementarities,and mining the trade potential and cooperation space of the three countries have important strategic significance to the economic development of the three countries.Under this background,this paper uses the gravity model to analyze the potential trade of 2002-2015 years between China,Mongolia and Russia.The results show that the actual trade volume between China and Russia in recent years showed a downward trend,and has great trade growth potential;bilateral trade between China and Mongolia presented“trade surplus”,but the volume of trade fluctuated,and the total trade value is small.Finally,through the strengthening of infrastructure construction,the enhancing of political,economic and cultural exchanges and improving the trade management system,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for the establishment of“China,Mongolia and Russia Economic Corridor”.