开放条件下中国货币政策对国际石油价格的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

本文先引入IS-LM-BP模型和AD-AS模型说明中国货币政策因素通过影响石油市场的供需，从而影响石油价格。再采用SVAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解，选择国际石油价格、中国工业增加值、狭义货币供应量、广义货币供应量和利率的月度指标对2005年7月～2015年5月国际油价波动的中国货币政策因素进行实证分析。研究发现：五变量间存在均衡关系，同时中国经济发展对油价的影响程度和时效性最大，其次是货币供应量，M1在短期内对油价的影响比M2显著，利率的影响贡献相对较小。在此结论的基础上，结合中国开放度、石油供需市场、供给侧改革等，提出相关政策建议。

The Impact of Chinese Monetary Policy on the InternationalOil Prices under the Liberalization——Based on SVAR Model

At first,the paper uses the IS-LM-BP model and AD-AS model to explain that Chinese monetary policy impacts on the price of oil by influencing the supply and demand of the oil.Then in order to do empirical analysis on how Chinese monetary policy affects international oil price,it builds the SVAR model,impulse response funct ion and variance decomposition by the monthly data of international oil price,Ch inese industrial increase value,narrow money supply,broad money supply and inter est rate from July 2005 to May 2015.Research results:there is a equilibrium rela tionship among the five variables.And the impact of Chinese economic development is the largest,followed by the money supply.In the short term,the effect of M1 is more obvious than M2,the impact of interest rates on the contribution is rela tively small.On the basis of this conclusion,combining with the opening degree o f China,the oil supply and demand market and the reform of supply side,it puts f orward the policy recommendations.