中国出口商品结构变化、产业结构优化升级与经济增长动态影响关系的实证研究——基于SVAR 模型

本文基于中国1985~2015 年的时间序列数据构建SVAR 模型，实证检验了出口商品结构变化、产业结构优化与经济增长之间的影响关系，并进行了脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。结果表明: 当期的出口商品结构变化对经济增长与产业结构优化对出口商品结构变化均产生显著的正影响；从跨期来看，产业结构优化和经济增长冲击主要来自于自身，出口商品结构变化对产业结构优化与产业结构优化对经济增长产生的正向冲击与影响贡献率均较小。

An Empirical Study of the Dynamic Impacts among Export Commodities Structure Change,Industrial Structure Optimization and Economic Growth in China —— Based on the SVAR Model

Based on the time series data of China from 1985 to 2015, this paper constructs the SVAR model that tests the relationship between the structural changes of export goods, industrial structure optimization and economic growth. On this basis, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis are carried out. The results show that the structural changes of export goods have a significant positive effect on the structural changes of export commodities, but the economic growth has a negative impact on the optimization of industrial structure. According to intertemporal, industrial structure optimization and economic growth mainly come from itself. The positive effect that export structure change impacts on economic growth and industrial structure optimization is little. It is small for the positive impact and the contribution rate that the structural changes of export goods influences industrial structure optimization and industrial structure optimization influences the economic growth.