Are aquaculture growth policies in high-income countries due diligence or illusionary dreams? Foreseeing policy implications on seafood production in Singapore |
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| Institution: | 1. Quantitative Sustainability Assessment Group, Sustainability Division, Department of Management, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark;2. Food Technology Centre (NAFTEC), School for Chemical and Biological Engineering, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore;3. Department of Economics, University of the Philippines Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines;4. Department of Food and Resource, University of Copenhagen, Denmark;1. Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of Arizona, United States;2. Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, United States;3. Joint Research Center, European Commission, Spain;1. Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 2334, Moscow, ID 83844, USA;2. Business School, University of Stavanger, Norway;1. Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden;2. Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;3. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, 135 Duke Marine Lab Rd., Beaufort, NC 28516, USA;4. U.S. NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA;5. Center of applied ecology and sustainability (CAPES) and Centro de Conservación Marina, Departamento de Ecologia, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;6. UNEP-IEMP, C/o Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;7. Department of Geography, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Saunders Hall CB 3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27510, USA;8. Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, Italy;9. The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden;10. College of the Environment, University of Washington, 1492 NE Boat St., Seattle, WA 98105, USA;1. Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, USA;2. Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida, USA;3. School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, USA |
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| Abstract: | In the beginning of 2019, the Singaporean government announced its desire to increase domestic food production and, in particular, aquaculture to reach 30% of self-sufficiency by 2030. Similar policies aiming at encouraging aquaculture growth abound in high-income countries in recent years, but have had limited success. Hence, this paper investigates the potential implications of such policies to foresee consequences beforehand and improve the policy’s chances of success. Three scenarios of aquaculture development are built for Singapore until 2040, among which a business-as-usual scenario and two explorative scenarios aiming at increasing aquaculture production, the first emphasizing existing technologies and the second giving priority to novel and innovative ones, like recirculating aquaculture systems. These scenarios are assessed using an adapted version of the supply-demand partial equilibrium model Asiafish to challenge their viability in the socioeconomic context of Singapore. Only the two explorative scenarios are found to allow the Singaporean government to reach its goal in terms of seafood self-sufficiency by 2030, one of which appears to have strong advantages. In this scenario, imports decrease by 28% by 2040, seafood self-sufficiency reaches 69% and 90% of all aquaculture originates from innovative technologies, which would make Singapore an aquaculture tech-hub. It also has higher benefits within Singapore environmental, social and economic constraints such as land and aquafeed scarcity. |
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| Keywords: | Aquaculture production Singapore Seafood self-sufficiency Asiafish model Scenarios Supply-demand |
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