中国经济的最优通货膨胀

制定一个适宜的长期通胀目标对于提高社会经济福利具有重要意义。本文构建了一个代表性的DSGE模型,用贝叶斯方法对模型进行了参数估计,并估算了在各种不同的货币政策规则下,中国经济所应选择的最优通胀目标。研究结果表明从短期看3%左右的通胀目标是最优的,而从中长期看低通胀目标(0.5%—1%)是最优的。本文的政策建议是盯住低通胀目标有利于长期社会经济福利,管住货币,看紧通胀仍应是中国央行货币政策制定的首要考量。

Optimal Inflation for China's Economy

A well-defined long-term inflation target is important in stabilizing market inflation expectations.It boosts efficiency of monetary policy and improves the social welfare.We consider a DSGE model and conduct a stochastic simulation to determine the endogenous variables and investigate the optimal inflation rate under various monetary policy rules.We find that in the short run although higher inflation rates may be optimal,in the long run lower inflation rates can minimize social losses.Maintaining price st...