地区差异、财政支出与居民消费

笔者利用跨期优化理论导出实证方程,然后运用1998年~2006年中国省级面板数据进行估计,并分析各地区政府财政总支出及其功能性分类支出对当地居民消费的影响。研究表明:1.地区差异对地方财政支出对居民消费的效应有重要影响。地方财政总支出对居民消费是一种不显著的挤出效应,这种挤出效应因不同地区、不同时期而不同;2.在国家实施积极财政政策时期,只有西部地区其他支出对居民消费有显著的挤出效应,其他地区的其他功能性分类财政支出对居民消费的效应均不显著;在国家实施稳健性财政政策时期,功能性分类财政支出对居民消费的影响随地区不同而不同。

Regional Difference, Fiscal Expenditure and Private Consumption

This paper builds an intertemporal model about the relationship between local fiscal expenditure and private consumption using dynamic programming theory,from which we can get an empirical equation.The author estimates this equation based on china provincial panel data from 1998 to 2006 and studies the effect of local fiscal expenditure and its components in different regions on private consumption.The result shows:1.Regional difference plays an important role in the effect of local fiscal expenditure on private consumption.Local fiscal expenditure crowds out private consumption,however,its coefficient is not significant statistically and its effect varies in different periods or different regions.2.In the period of active fiscal policy,only other local fiscal expenditure crowds out private consumption significantly.In the period of balanced fiscal policy,the effects of the components of local fiscal expenditure on private consumption vary according to different regions.