从“特里芬难题”看美元的扩张及其影响

随着世界经济贸易的不断扩展和国际货币需求的日益增加，美元对国外的供给将不断扩大，但如果美国国际收支持续出现顺差，则美元的供给就将减少，难以满足国际需求；如果美国国际收支持续出现逆差，则又不利于美元价值的稳定，就要导致美元的贬值，这一点，罗伯特·特星芬早在20世纪60年代就做出了准确的预测。发生在美国的金融危机与美国半个多世纪以来的周期性国际收支失衡和美元极度扩张密切相关，美元的不稳定使国际金融体系变得更加脆弱。美元扩张已经积累了巨大的全球金融体系的风险，使全球经济面临上世纪大萧条以来最为严重的金融和经济危机。

Viewing the US dollar expanding and its affect from the Triffin Dilemma

Expand continuously along with economic trade in world is demanding to increase increasingly with international currency, the US$ supplies to the abroad and won＇t break the extension, but if the American international receipt and expenditure appears the surplus continuously, then the US$ supply and then will reduce, and is hard to satisfy international need;if the American international receipt and expenditure appear the unfavorable variance continuously, then again disadvantageous in the stability that US$ be worth, will cause US$ depreciate, this, Robert Triffin, especially the star aroma the as early as 60＂s in 20 centuries did accurate estimate. The periodic international receipt and expenditure in over financial crisis and a many centuries of American half of occurrence at the United States is out of balance to extend with US$ extremely closely related, US$ of unsteady make international financial system become more weak.The US$ extend already backlog the risk of the huge global financial system, make global economy face for last century big depressed the most serious financial and economic crisis.Hong Kong Hongkong Bank