| 农村水库移民养老保险金标准组合测算模型及其应用——以山西省垣曲县小浪底移民库区为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈琛. 农村水库移民养老保险金标准组合测算模型及其应用——以山西省垣曲县小浪底移民库区为例[J]. 水利经济, 2010, 28(1): 71-74. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-9511.2010.01.020 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈琛 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学公共管理学院,江苏,南京,211100 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢：文章得到河海大学公共管理学院施国庆教授、余文学教授以及黄建元教授指导,特此致谢. |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析影响建立水库移民养老保险金指标体系因素的基础上,构建了水库移民养老保险金标准指标体系和测算模型,并且根据垣曲县小浪底水库移民区实地调查,运用线性回归预测模型和三次指数预测模型进行组合预测,预测出垣曲县未来13年的水库移民养老保险金给付标准:给付标准从2008年的259.9133元/月增长到2020年的408.5503元/月。
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| 关 键 词： | 水库移民 农村移民 养老保险 给付标准 指标体系 组合预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-01-25 |
Combination forecast model for social endowment insurance level of reservoir resettlement in rural areas and its application:a case of Xiaolangdi reservoir resettlement region in Yuanqu County of Shanxi Province |
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| CHEN Chen. Combination forecast model for social endowment insurance level of reservoir resettlement in rural areas and its application:a case of Xiaolangdi reservoir resettlement region in Yuanqu County of Shanxi Province[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources, 2010, 28(1): 71-74. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-9511.2010.01.020 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Chen |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN Chen (School of Political Science , Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of factors for the establishment of the social endowment insurance system of reservoir resettlement, the index system and the forecast model for the social endowment insurance level were established. According to the field investigation of the Xiaolangdi reservoir region in Yuanqu County, the combination forecast was performed by use of the linear regression and the cubic exponential models. The forecast level of the social endowment insurance in Yuanqu County is 408.5503 RMB yuan/mont... |
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| Keywords: | reservoir resettlement rural resettlement endowment insurance pension level index system combination forecast |
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