人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各产业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的分析

研究构建了一个可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)以量化估算人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各部门的影响。根据最新的中国2005年投入产出表编制了中国2005年社会核算矩阵作为CGE模型的基础数据集。研究表明:除服务业、建筑业外,人民币实际汇率升值使大部分产业产出下降,升值的财富效应导致国内购买力增强,服务业、建筑业产出随之增加;升值使农业部门的农业劳动力需求减少,服务业、建筑业的劳动力需求增加,大部分非农行业的劳动力需求也都趋于减少。

Effects of RMB REER Appreciation on China's Economic Sectors

A computable general equilibrium(CGE) is constructed to evaluate quantitatively the impact of the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate(REER) on China's economic sectors.The base year database for our CGE model-social accounting matrix(SAM) of year 2005 is constructed based on the latest 2005 input-output tables of China.The main results are as follows:RMB REER appreciation reduces the output of most sectors,except for the construction and service sector.Increased demand for the construction and services sector induces more output because the wealth effect of currency reevaluation causes the domestic purchasing power to rise.RMB REER appreciation reduces demands for agricultural labor and most non agricultural labor.