| 基于案例推理的非常规突发事件资源需求预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晓, 庄亚明,. 基于案例推理的非常规突发事件资源需求预测[J]. 华东经济管理, 2011, 25(1): 115-117. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2011.01.027 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晓 庄亚明 |
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| 作者单位： | 东南大学,系统工程研究所,江苏,南京,211189 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学基金一般项目(09YJA630021);; 江苏省自然科学基金一般项目(BK2009290);; 江苏省交通科学研究计划项目(09R12);; 江苏省软科学基金一般项目(SBR20090383) |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来非常规突发事件频繁发生，严重危害了人民的生命财产安全，而如何及时预测灾害发生后的资源需求成为一个重要课题。文章提出了一种精确的预测方法，将模糊集理论，神经网络Hebb学习规则和多元线性回归与案例推理法相结合。这种方法很好地解决了非常规突发事件资源需求预测这类信息不完备、不精确问题，能够比较准确的作出资源的需求预测。该模型对灾害资源需求预测具有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 非常规 预测 CBR 模糊理论 神经网络 多元回归 |
Forecasting Model of Unconventional Emergence Incident s Resource Demand Based on Case-based Reasoning |
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| WANG Xiao; ZHUANG Ya-ming. Forecasting Model of Unconventional Emergence Incident s Resource Demand Based on Case-based Reasoning[J]. East China Economic Management, 2011, 25(1): 115-117. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2011.01.027 |
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| Authors: | WANG Xiao ZHUANG Ya-ming |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Systems Engineering; Southeast University; Nanjing 211189; China |
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| Abstract: | In recent years the unconventional emergence incident occurred frequently,which is seriously harmful to people s lives and property.So how to predict resource requirements after disasters timely become an important issue.This paper presents an accurate prediction method-case-based reasoning,combined with fuzzy set theory,neural network Hebb learning rule and multiple linear regression.This approach can make quite accurate resources demand forecasts for this kind of information incomplete,not precise questio... |
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| Keywords: | unconventional forecasting CBR fuzzy theory neural network multiple regression |
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