Capturing Regional Trade Effects in the Presence of Other Trade Effects: The Impact of the Europe Agreement on Poland’s Imports |
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Authors: | Chris Milner Katarzyna Sledziewska |
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Institution: | (1) GEP and School of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK;(2) Department of Economics, Warsaw University, Warsaw, Poland |
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Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the Europe Agreement on Poland’s imports using econometric models applied to highly
disaggregated trade data. This allows other influences on Poland’s trade patterns to be controlled for, specifically the effects
of other trade agreements and for the emergence of China. The paper shows that the Europe Agreement had transitory effects
on Poland’s imports, but that the scale of the trade effects and the balance of trade creation and diversion effects is sensitive
to model specification. The preferred dynamic specification which allows for heterogeneity of time effects across sectors
identifies the Europe Agreement to have net trade-creating effects.
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Keywords: | Economic integration Trade creation and diversion |
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