对我国三次产业发展与信贷增长的实证分析

面板数据模型分析表明,在地区方面,东部地区的经济基础优于中西部,但信贷投入对中西部地区的促进效果高于东部地区;在产业方面,第三产业受信贷支持的效果最明显,第一产业受信贷支持的效果最差;在长短信贷方面,短期贷款对经济的促进作用不显著。为此,国家应保持对中西部特别是西部地区的直接投入力度,拓宽中西部地区的融资渠道,优化投资结构,密切关注中长期贷款的风险,并加大对农业的投入。

The Positive Analysis of the Three Industrial Development and Credit Growth Based on the Model of Panel-Data

The analysis of Panel-Data shows that,in terms of region,the economic basis of the eastern region is better than the central and western region,but the effect of credit investment in the central and western region is better than that in the eastern region;in terms of long and short-term credit,the short-term loan has not significant effect on economy.So,we should adopt such countermeasures as maintaining the direct investment to the central and western region,explore more channel of finance for the central and western region,etc.