中国股票市场与经济增长关系的实证研究

股票市场与经济增长一直是近年来的热点问题,在国外的相关研究中,大多数认为股票市场通过其功能作用促进了经济增长,而我国情况又如何呢?我们在前人的研究成果上,对股票市场与经济增长关系运用协整分析和格兰杰检验作实证分析。结果显示,换手率和上市公司数目增长率与经济增长不具有协整关系。而资本率和交易率与经济增长具有协整关系,但他们不是经济增长的格兰杰原因;反之,则成立。因此,加强法制建设,规范股票市场,使其发挥应有的作用是当前的关键所在。

An Empirical Study on the Relation between Stock Market and Economic Growth in China

Stock market and the economic growth is a hot point in recent years. Most foreign studies show the positive relation between stock market and economic growth. Based on this, the paper studies the long-term equilibrium relation between stock market and economic growth in China by employing the co-integration analysis and Granger Test. The results indicate turnover and companies' number and economic growth have no co-integration relation. Furthermore, economic growth causes capitalization and value trades, but the opposite is not right. Hence, the normalization of stock market should be key to the development of finance.