Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels |
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Authors: | Michael Ye John Zyren Joanne Shore |
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Institution: | (1) St. Mary's College of Maryland, U.S.A.;(2) Department of Energy, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum
inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum
production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum
market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives
of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and
government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production,
imports, or demand change.
This work is partially sponsored by the Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Department of Energy, USA, and was presented
at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 2001. |
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Keywords: | |
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