我国内需率下降的成因及建立扩大内需长效机制的思路

本文从理论上阐明了内需和扩大内需的含义，认为扩大内需只有在基于GDP支出法的总需求分析框架下才能被提出来，目标是在内需规模不断扩大的基础上提高内需率。实证研究表明，贸易顺差增长过快，投资和消费关系不协调，存在制约居民消费的体制机制，共同导致进入21世纪以来我国内需率持续大幅下降。建立扩大内需的长效机制，应把握扩大内需与降低净出口并重、扩大内需规模与提高内需增长质量并重两个要点，以提高内需率为目标，加快建立内外需求协调发展、投资消费良性互动、消费持续稳定增长和投资长期稳定可持续增长四大机制。

ANALYSIS ON DOMESTIC DEMAND

By analyzing the meanings of domestic demand and expanding domestic demand, this paper found that expansion of domestic demand was based on the frame of expenditure accounts of GDP. The aim of expanding domestic demand was to increase the ratio of domestic demand by expanding the scale of domestic demand. Empirical study indicated that the decreasing domestic demand was caused by three factors, excessive increase of trade surplus, imbalance between investment and consumption, as well as institutional and mechanical factors. To establish long term mechanisms of expanding domestic demand, this paper suggested setting up mechanisms of coordination of domestic and external demand, activating interaction of investment and consumptions, and increasing sustainability of both investment and consumption.