对外贸易差额结构与中国新经济增长模式

本文通过考察中国对外贸易的差额结构来展望“十二五”纲要中提出的中国新经济增长模式的发展前景。统计分析表明，中国对外贸易顺差是伴随着高耗能、低附加值制造业的发展而实现的，中国外向型制造业的附加值很低，无法真正实现从根本上提升技术水平的目标。中国的产成品过于集中地出口到美国和欧盟，使中国产品在国际市场上面临着严重的贸易摩擦与争端，使中国对外贸易发展具有不可持续性。为完成“十二五”纲要中的发展目标，实现内外平衡的经济增长新模式，需要调整目前的贸易差额结构，既要努力实现国内制造业技术水平的提升，又要注意出口流向多元化，并且从根本上促进金融保险等服务业的发展；在依靠国内市场的同时不能放弃对外贸易，并力争做到二者的协同发展。

THE STRUCTURE OF TRADE BALANCE AND CHINA'S NEW GROWTH MODE

China's trade surplus had been accumulated by the development of manufacture, featured by highly energy-consumed and low value added.China's
manufactured products had been relying mainly on the United States and European market, which brought about serious trade frictions to Chinese products.China's structure of trade balance should be adjusted to compatible with new growth mode in the future.The foundation was to upgrade the technology level of manufacture, whichrequired localization of high tech intermediate products.In meantime, Chinese firms should open up international markets more broadly.In order to enhance key service sectors such as finance and insurance, China should accumulate better human capital and financing Moreover, China should coordinate the domestic demand and foreign trade to accomplish the balanced growth.