| 基于ARIMA模型的中国外贸进出口预测:2006-2010 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈汉溪,林坚.基于ARIMA模型的中国外贸进出口预测:2006-2010[J].国际贸易问题,2007(6):24-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈汉溪 林坚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江大学管理学院;漳州师范学院经济学系
2. 浙江大学管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | ARIMA(Auto-regressive Moving Average)模型是一种常用的随机时序模型,主要用于预测,短期预测精度较高。本文利用ARIMA模型预测了2006-2010年中国外贸进出口总额、出口总额和进口总额。
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| 关 键 词： | 对外贸易 进出口 预测 ARIMA |
Forecast of China's Export and Import Based on ARIMA Model: 2006-2010 |
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| SHEN Han-xi,LIN Jian.Forecast of China''''s Export and Import Based on ARIMA Model: 2006-2010[J].Journal of International Trade,2007(6):24-26. |
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| Authors: | SHEN Han-xi LIN Jian |
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| Abstract: | ARIMA(Auto-regressive Moving Average) is a new but increasingly used stochastic model suited for forecasting. Its results are usually very accurate in the short run. This article uses the model to predict China's foreign trade from 2006 to 2010. |
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| Keywords: | China's foreign trade Import and export Forecast ARIMA |
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