经济政策不确定性视角下宏观杠杆的调控效应及其策略选择

新常态下保证宏观杠杆稳步下降是供给侧结构性改革的重要任务之一。以中国经济政策不确定性为门限变量,构建了包括经济政策不确定性、宏观经济政策以及宏观杠杆在内的门限结构向量自回归(T-SVAR)模型,研究高低两种政策不确定性区制下我国需求端货币政策与财政政策以及供给端金融改革政策对宏观杠杆的调控效应。结果显示,三种政策均存在明显的门限效应且在中长期内均出现逆转,区别在于,虽然货币政策对宏观杠杆的短期作用效果最为显著,但当政策不确定性水平快速攀升时,其调控效果会略微降低,而此时财政政策和金融供给侧结构性改革能有效平抑过高的杠杆率增速,且在长期依旧保持一定的调控效果。因此,央行在对宏观杠杆进行调控时应依据各政策调控效应的阶段性特征进行搭配使用,同时通过推进资本市场基础性制度改革,优化融资结构,为实现宏观政策调控效果的最大化奠定基础。

The Regulation Effect and Strategy Choice of Macro Leverage from the Perspective of Economic Policy Uncertainty

Under the new normal economy, ensuring the steady decline of macro-leverage is one of the important tasks of supply-side structural reform. Taking the uncertainty of China’s economic policy as the threshold variable, this paper constructs a threshold structure vector autoregressive(T-SVAR) model including the uncertainty of economic policy, macro-economic policy and macro-leverage, and studies the regulatory effect of demand-side monetary policy and fiscal policy and supply-side financial reform on macro-leverage under the high and low policy uncertainty zoning system. The results show that the three macro-policies have obvious threshold effect and reversal in the medium and long term. The difference is that although the short-term effect of monetary policy on macro-leverage is the most significant, when the level of policy uncertainty rises rapidly, its regulatory effect will be slightly reduced. At this time, fiscal policy and structural reform on the financial supply side can effectively suppress the excessive growth of leverage rate, and still retain a certain regulatory effect in the long run. Therefore, when regulating macroleverage, the authorities should make use of it in accordance with the periodic characteristics of the regulation effect of each policy. At the same time, they should optimize the financing structure by promoting the reform of the basic system of capital market and lay a foundation for maximizing the effect of macro-policy regulation.