网上技术交易趋势预测模型及应用研究

网上技术交易平台开展交易趋势预测和交易潜力识别，可提高平台技术信息管理水平和网上技术市场运作效率。从网上技术市场和专利情报分析理论出发，提出网上技术交易趋势预测分析指标，设计构建预测模型和相关流程方法，并以广州知识产权交易中心的网上挂牌专利数据为例，进行定量测度和评价分析，从而提出发展网上交易服务能力的建议。结果表明，提出的技术交易趋势预测模型与流程具有适用性和可操作性，可针对网上平台技术资源确定差异化预测类型及其关键影响指标，建立基于技术领域分类的平台分析体系。研究结论可为网上平台设计基于自身特点的技术信息管理策略，提高信息服务专业化能力提供参考。

Research on the Trend Prediction Model of Online Technology Transaction and its Application

Online technology transaction platform can improve the management level of technology information and the operation efficiency of online technology marketplace through the prediction of transaction trend and identification of trading potential. Based on the theory of online technology marketplaces and patent information analysis,it put forward the analysis index of online technology transaction trend prediction,and constructed the prediction model and related process methods. It also took the online listing patent data of Guangzhou intellectual property trading center as an example to carry out quantitative measurement and evaluation analysis. The results show that the technology transaction trend prediction model and process proposed in this study have applicability and operability. It can analyze the technology resources of online platform,determine the different prediction types and their key impact indicators,and establish an analysis system based on technology field classification. The research results can provide reference for the design of technology information management strategy based on its own characteristics and the improvement of information service specialization.