我国开放条件下的货币政策操作规则

本文利用我国1994～2006年季度数据,分别对开放经济条件下的Taylor规则和McCal-lum规则进行了实证检验。结果表明,我国货币政策操作一直遵从McCallum规则,Tay-lor规则不适合我国国情。这意味着,如果经济结构不发生大的变化,就可以根据历史数据回归得到的McCallum规则的各种参数和通胀缺口、实际汇率、货币乘数、货币流通速度等变量的预期变化,测算出合理的基础货币增长率,这将为调控基础货币供给提供重要参照。

The Monetary Policy Operating Rules of China in the Opening Economy

Based on the seasonal data from 1994 to 2006,this paper employs an empirical test with Taylor rule and McCallum rule in the opening economy of China.The results show that our monetary policy operation obeys McCallum rule and Taylor rule isn't applicable to the situation of China.It means that the logical growth rate of base money can be calculated using the regressed parameters in McCallum rule and the anticipated changes of inflation gap;real exchange rate;monetary multiplier and monetary velocity,if there isn't enormous change in the economic structure.It will provide frame of reference to the manipulation of base money supply.