关于日本对华直接投资贸易效应的实证分析

有关外商直接投资的贸易效应已经成为理论界讨论的热点问题,大量文献讨论了投资对贸易流量的影响.本文在前人研究的基础上,采用协整检验及误差修正模型检验,分析日本对华直接投资对于中日双边贸易所产生的效应.结果表明,日本对华直接投资与中国对日进、出口均表现为一种显著的协整关系;无论从长期还是短期看,日本对华直接投资与中国对日本的出口具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,但与中国对日本进口仅有单向的因果关系.

Empirical Analysis on the Trade Effect of Japanese Direct Investment in China

The trading effect of FDI has already become the focus in the theoretical area, and a lot of literatures have discussed the impact on the flows of bilateral trade brought by FDI. Based on the previous research, this paper uses co-integration test and error correction model to analysis the impact of Japan's direct investment in China on Sino-Japanese trade. The result indicates that Japan's direct investment in China and China's exports to Japan, Japan's direct investment in China and China's imports from Japan, both present an obvious co-integration relationship. And also shows that whether in the long or short term, between Japan's direct investment in China and China's exports to Japan have a significant two-way Granger causality, but between Japan's direct investment in China and China's imports from Japan only have a single causality.