基于因子分析法的新疆棉花秸秆资源化潜力SWOT分析

棉花秸秆长期以来被认知为农作物余留,决定了其资源化道路必定漫长而修远。在全球减碳发展背景下,农业减碳成本相对较低,棉花秸秆资源化符合永续发展需求。文章基于SWOT分析框架,构建了S/W/O/T指标评价体系,采用因子分析法,评价了2004~2013年间新疆棉花秸秆资源化潜力,根据潜力曲线变化趋势,参考旋转成分矩阵各因子载荷数值,结合实际情况,分析了影响新疆棉花秸秆资源化潜力因子以及其所具有的优势和劣势,面临的机会与挑战。研究结果表明:(1)新疆耕地资源充足、机械化水平高,棉花秸秆资源化潜力较大。(2)受自然、社会条件约束,新疆棉花秸秆资源化潜力难以得到完全发挥。(3)新疆存在科技潜力转变为科技红利的现实基础,借助跨越式发展机遇,棉花秸秆资源化潜力将会得到有效激发。(4)受现有技术、社会经济影响,新疆棉花秸秆资源化潜力现实转化程度有待提高。

SWOT ANALYSIS OF RESOURCES POTENTIAL FOR XINJIANG COTTON STALK ON THE BASIS OF FACTOR ANALYSIS METHOD

The resources utilization of cotton stalk will last for a long time, which can meet the demand of sustainable development because of its low cost under the background of the global development of carbon reduction. Based on the SWOT analytical framework, this paper established the S/W/O/T index evaluation system, evaluated the resources utilization potential of Xinjiang cotton stalk from 2004 to 2013. According to the changing trend of potential curve and the factor loading value of rotation component matrix, this paper analyzed the advantages and disadvantages that affected the resources utilization potential of Xinjiang cotton stalk, as well as opportunities and challenges. The research showed that: (1) The cultivated land resources in Xinjiang were abundant and the mechanization level was high, the resources utilization potential of cotton stalk was huge. (2)The resources utilization potential of Xinjiang cotton stalk was difficult to develop due to the natural and social conditions. (3) Xinjiang had the basis for transforming technological potential into technological dividends, the resources utilization potential of cotton stalk will be effectively inspired on the basis of leap development opportunity. (4) The actual conversion degree of the resources utilization potential for Xinjiang cotton stalk should be improved due to the impact of existing technology and social economy.