An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms |
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Authors: | MICHAEL P. CLEMENTS |
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Affiliation: | Michael P. Clements is at the Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry(E‐mail: m.p.clements@warwick.ac.uk). |
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Abstract: | I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts. |
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Keywords: | C53 E32 E37 rounding probability forecasts probability distributions |
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