旅游型海岛社会-生态系统脆弱性特征及影响机制——以长海县为例

海岛是海陆相互作用的敏感地带,推进海岛可持续发展是海洋强国战略实施的内在要求。本文基于脆弱性研究框架,运用组合权重法、集对分析法和障碍度模型,对长海县2009—2018年社会-生态系统脆弱性特征及其影响机制进行分析。结果为：（1）综合脆弱性沿着“W”型演化,暴露性、敏感性和适应性分别呈“W”型、“M”型和“N”型趋势。（2）从“暴露性-敏感性-适应性”视角对致脆结构分析得出敏感性和适应性对于综合脆弱性贡献度相对较大,脆弱性和暴露性的趋势走向较为相似。（3）通过对敏感性耦合结构分析得出,生态-经济系统耦合承载力高于其他2个系统组合,需重点关注生态-社会-经济复合系统承载能力。（4）通过对适应性调控结构分析得出,今后适应性资本投资可参照2012年调控结构进行调整。（5）通过对影响脆弱性等级关键性因子演化机制分析得出,严格控制脆弱性持续障碍因子,重点发展“降脆”助推因子,降低“降脆”障碍因子阻力,促进海岛可持续发展。

The vulnerability characteristics of the tourism-type island Social-Ecological System (SES) and its influence mechanism: A case of Changhai County

Islands are sensitive areas where sea and land interact. Correctly handling the contradiction between human and land on islands and promoting the sustainable development of islands are the ultimate goals of the construction of ecological civilization and the implementation of national marine power strategy. Framed by vulnerability, this paper used combined weight method, set pair analysis method, and obstacle degree model to analyze the Social-Ecological System (SES) vulnerability characteristics and the evolution mechanism of its influencing factors in Changhai County from 2009 to 2018. The results are: (1) Comprehensive vulnerability and exposure followed the trend of "W" shape, sensitivity followed the trend of "M" shape, and adaptability followed the trend of "N" shape. (2) From the perspective of "exposure-sensitivity-adaptability," the analysis on the fragile structure showed that the sensitivity and adaptability of the regulation should be the focus, as well as monitoring the exposure index level. (3) Analysis of the sensitive coupling structure showed that Changhai County government should not only control the threshold of a single system, but also focus on the carrying capacity of the composite system. (4) Analysis of the adaptive control structure demonstrated that future capital investment on adaptation can be adjusted with reference to the 2012 control structure. (5) Analysis of the evolution mechanism of the key factors influencing vulnerability level showed that the continuous barrier factors of vulnerability should be strictly controlled, and the "fragility reduction" boosting factors should be developed to reduce the resistance of the "fragility reduction" barrier factors and promote the sustainable development of islands.