RCEP关税减让对各成员国的经济影响分析

大幅度削减成员国间关税是RCEP协议的核心内容,为了揭示RCEP成员国间关税减让的经济影响,文章首先分析了RCEP成员国间贸易现状、产品结构、进口关税和贸易竞争力,然后,运用GTAP模型模拟RCEP关税减让对各成员国宏观经济和产出的影响,得到结论如下：（1）RCEP关税减让可以缓解中美贸易摩擦对于中国经济的不利影响;（2）就短期而言,RCEP成员国间关税减让可以提高中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚的GDP、社会福利、居民收入和消费水平等宏观经济效益,同时,还可以提高中国、韩国、澳大利亚、东盟的总产出水平;（3）就长期来说,实施零关税可能显著提升RCEP大多数成员国的宏观经济效益和产出水平。

Analysis of the Economic Impacts of RCEP Tariff Reduction on Its Members

Drastically cutting tariffs between RCEP members is the core content of the Agreement. In order to reveal the economic impact of tariff concessions among RCEP members, the status of trade among RCEP members, product trade structure, import tariffs and trade competitiveness are analyzed in this paper and then the impacts of RCEP tariff reduction on the macroeconomic and output of each member are analyzed by using the GTAP model. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The competitiveness of China's vegetables and fruits and dried fruits, livestock products, forest products, meat and aquatic products, as well as industrial products such as chemical products and transportation equipment, is lower than that of some members of RCEP. Tariff reduction among RCEP members may make China's products mentioned to be more unfavorable in the market competition of other RCEP members. (2) The Sino-US trade friction has adverse effects on China's macro economy and outputs. Tariff reduction among RCEP members may not only significantly increase China's GDP and social welfare and other macroeconomic benefits, but also eliminate the negative impacts of Sino-US trade friction on production of China's rice, wheat, Vegetables, fruits and dried fruits. (3) In a short term, tariff reductions among RCEP members will help increase GDP, social welfare, residents' income and consumption levels of China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, as well as increase net capital gains of China, South Korea, Australia. At the same time, total outputs of ASEAN members, China, South Korea and Australia can be increased, and the exports of China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and ASEAN members can also be expanded. Additionally, Japan, South Korea, Australia GDP, social welfare, household income and consumption can be increased and the capital net return, output, imports and exports of RCEP members may be increased. In the long run, achieving the goal of zero tariffs among RCEP members will help to increase the total output of each member, and it will also increase the GDP, social welfare, residents' income and consumption levels of China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Additionally, it will increase the net rate of capital return, imports and exports of the members.